With the Patriots needing help Sunday to make the playoffs, those words ring particularly true. With a win over Buffalo, the Patriots would finish 11-5, which might not be good enough for the playoffs, thanks to a top-heavy AFC. If they fail to advance, they're going to look back at a few pivotal moments.

In two of the losses - vs. Miami and San Diego - the Patriots were outclassed from the start. Two others - vs. Indianapolis and and the New York Jets - swung on single plays, which merit our review below. The blowout loss to the Steelers was actually a competitive game until a costly miscue late in the third quarter.

If the Patriots season ends Sunday, here are the three plays, in order of importance, that ended up costing them:

** 1. Dustin Keller's overtime reception - The Patriots had already rallied from a 24-6 deficit against the Jets in Week 11 to force overtime on Randy Moss' miracle touchdown reception with one second left in regulation. They lost the overtime coin toss, but appeared in good shape when Pierre Woods subsequently sacked Brett Favre on first down and Gary Guyton broke up a pass to Leon Washington over the middle.

But on third-and-15, a pre-snap miscommunication resulted in rookie Jerod Mayo sprinting downfield, giving tight end Keller a huge cushion to catch Favre's 12-yard pass and break Brandon Meriweather's attempted tackle just shy of the first-down marker.

Keller managed to stretch forward for a 16-yard gain, and that was the end of that. The Jets drove to the winning field goal and the Patriots' high-octane offense never stepped on the field.

The way the various tiebreakers have worked out since, this loss to the Jets, above all others, is the one that has left the Patriots in their current predicament.

``We actually blew a coverage and it really shouldn't have been as big a problem,'' defensive coordinator Dean Pees later said. ``It wasn't so much them presenting the problem as us presenting the problem to ourselves.''

** 2. Jabar Gaffney's drop - The Patriots had not yet morphed into the high-scoring offense they would become when they faced the Colts in Indianapolis in Week 9, so points were at a premium.

They were locked in a low-scoring battle with the Colts and trailed, 15-12, on the penultimate play of the third quarter when Matt Cassel took a first-down snap from the Indy 39.

Gaffney, quiet to that point, was split out wide left and beat corner Keiwan Ratliff cleanly off the line with an inside move. Safety Antoine Bethea, playing deep in cover-2, was slow rotating over the top and Cassel's pass hit Gaffney in stride at the 5-yard line.

Gaffney couldn't hold on, though, and the Patriots had to settle for the tying field goal in a game they lost, 18-15.

The ripple effect of a victory would have been huge. In addition to giving the Pats another conference win, it could have dealt a serious blow to the Colts, who had come into the game at 3-4.

Instead of falling to 3-5 and wondering if their season was unraveling, the Colts began the eight-game winning streak they carry into today's finale.

Clearly, Gaffney's gaffe looms large for both teams.

** 3. Matthew Slater's fumble - The way the second half of Pittsburgh's 33-10 Week 13 victory unfolded at Gillette Stadium, it's stretching things to say one play decided the game.

However, when rookie return man Slater fumbled a kickoff late in the third quarter, the Patriots trailed only, 13-10, and were presumably getting the ball back.

Slater's gaffe, coming just seconds after a Jeff Reed field goal, gave the Steelers the ball at the Patriots 8. Two plays later, Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger hit Hines Ward for the touchdown and the rout was on.

Afterward, a disconsolate Slater faced the music and whispered that he had cost his team the game.

While there's no way to know what would have happened had Slater held on to the ball, the fact is it allowed the Steelers to give their No. 1-ranked defense the lead and opened the floodgates. The Patriots never recovered.

- jtomase@bostonherald.com